Warsh Starts With a Hike, but Keeps the Fed’s Next Move Open

The Fed’s first rate increase since 2023 confirms Kevin Warsh’s hawkish start, but his retreat from forward guidance leaves markets to price the next move from data.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 17, 2026 at 4:57 AM IST

The White House/ Wikimedia Commons

Replacing Powell with Warsh Didn't Work, At Least Not Yet

Trump changed the Fed chairman hoping for cheaper money. At the first big test, his new chairman raised rates instead: a reminder that presidents can change the occupant of the Fed, but not the arithmetic of inflation.

R. Gurumurthy

September 17, 2026 at 3:28 AM IST

US Fed

US FOMC Raises Fed Rates by 25 bps, Warsh Flags Persistent Inflation Risks

BasisPoint Insight

September 17, 2026 at 2:59 AM IST

Why Are Bond Yields Unyielding?

Rising bond yields flag doubts about fiscal discipline, inflation risks and competition for capital. India is not immune to the global repricing.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 14, 2026 at 5:10 AM IST

istock.com

Kevin Warsh's Best Move Is To Do Nothing

Beholden to mainstream economic ideas, the US Federal Reserve Chair has committed himself, and his reputation, to a goal he cannot achieve. Reining in inflation requires not interest-rate adjustments, but much larger strategic shifts that are not within the Fed’s power to influence.

James K. Galbraith

September 8, 2026 at 6:39 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

AI's Market Path Will Get Bumpier

By enhancing the input that goes into so much of what we do—intelligence—AI’s potential to drive higher economic growth is enormous. But with fears of the technology's unintended consequences affecting the pace and depth of adoption, the promise of long-term gains must be set against more immediate risks.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

September 3, 2026 at 2:57 AM IST

digitalindia.gov.in

Warsh’s Quiet Fed Shifts Uncertainty to Markets

Jackson Hole made the case for greater Fed discretion. The price is a less visible reaction function and more uncertainty for markets.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 1, 2026 at 3:20 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Nifty Slips as US-Iran Tensions Lift Oil, Global Yields; Rupee Gains

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

Tresha Dias

August 31, 2026 at 1:16 PM IST

Istock.com

The Fed and the Treasury Are in Denial

For most of the postwar era, the United States has enjoyed a privileged position as an issuer of both sovereign debt and US dollars that always found takers. But the US may no longer be able to rely on stable demand for its debt or its currency, forcing policymakers to face the truth about how financial markets are made.

Katharina Pistor

August 31, 2026 at 5:28 AM IST

Istock.com

The Central Banking Desk

Warsh Makes September Live but Keeps the Playbook Closed

Jackson Hole gave markets a firmer inflation standard and raised hike odds, but Warsh’s quieter Fed still leaves its reaction function under-specified.

BasisPoint Insight

August 29, 2026 at 6:47 AM IST

US Fed

Market Wrap

Nifty Snaps Two-Day Losing Streak as IT, Pharma Gain; Rupee Rises

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Tresha Dias

August 28, 2026 at 12:24 PM IST

iStock.com

Bessent, Druckenmiller Face Off Over Treasury Yield Intervention

Scott Bessent and Stanley Druckenmiller, once allies in the pound trade, now face off over the US Treasury’s bid to force long-term yields lower.

Sanjay Mansabdar

August 28, 2026 at 4:16 AM IST

Wikimedia Commons

Kevin Warsh Owes Us an Apology

After only a few months in office, the chair of the US Federal Reserve has left market participants disoriented and confused. His first address to the annual monetary-policy symposium in Jackson Hole is an opportunity to set things aright—or to make matters even worse.

Marco Buti

Marcello Messori

August 27, 2026 at 5:52 AM IST

US Fed

Why US Bond Markets Are Trembling

What is the apparent fragility in the US bond market telling us? Since markets tend to be less wrong than those who comment on them regularly, their signals must be taken seriously, especially when they coincide with a relative softening in US inflation figures and other high-frequency economic indicators.

Jim O’Neill

August 21, 2026 at 7:16 AM IST

istock.com

India’s Bond Markets Must Let the Data Speak Louder Than RBI Guidance

Inflation, surplus liquidity, rupee weakness, and crude oil now point towards higher rates. Bond markets should trust the data, not RBI guidance.

Yield Scribe

August 21, 2026 at 2:51 AM IST

istock.com

A Monetarist Renaissance?

After decades on the margins, monetarism may be returning to the Fed, putting money supply back at the centre of the inflation debate.

Michael Debabrata Patra

August 10, 2026 at 2:53 AM IST

US Fed

The Central Banking Desk

Fed Holds as Dissent Becomes the Signal

A 9–3 hold, three votes for a hike and a sharply steeper Treasury curve leave September live even as Warsh refuses to pre-commit.

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2026 at 6:22 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Fed’s Warsh Says Play the Ball, Markets Call Foul

Warsh wants investors to trade the data rather than the Fed. The post-meeting yield curve exposed the cost of asking markets to price policy without a visible reaction function.

Kalyan Ram

July 30, 2026 at 3:19 AM IST

US Fed

Split vote exposes growing inflation divide as Fed holds rates

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2026 at 2:01 AM IST

Federal Reserve

July Fed Decision Is a Cliffhanger as Warsh Keeps Markets Guessing

The data favour a hold, but markets cannot rule out a credibility-building rate increase and the financial instability that could follow.

Yield Scribe

July 29, 2026 at 6:23 AM IST

US Fed

Trimmed Mean Inflation: Cutting Through the Noise—or Trimming Reality?

Trimmed mean inflation can cut through volatile price swings and sharpen the policy signal. But it also risks becoming a convenient metric that bears little resemblance to the inflation households actually feel.

Deepa Vasudevan

July 17, 2026 at 3:26 AM IST

istock.com

India’s Bond Rally Gives Way to a Wider Market Test

Dollar funding, oil and foreign inflows will shape not only sovereign yields but also the rupee, bank liquidity and corporate borrowing costs.

Yield Scribe

July 16, 2026 at 7:08 AM IST

istock.com

The Market Is Pricing the RBI, Not Inflation

June CPI rose, yet rate-hike calls faded. The market is pricing the RBI’s growth bias—not inflation—and echoing the central bank back to itself.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 15, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

istock.com

The Morning Edge

Asia Stocks Rally as Softer US Inflation Data Dials Back Fed Hike Bets

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 15, 2026 at 2:30 AM IST

US Fed

The Central Banking Desk

Rajan Enters Warsh’s Fed Rebuild

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

July 11, 2026 at 5:55 AM IST

WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Asian Shares Fall as West Asia Tension Escalates After US Strikes on Iran

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Dehuti Jani

July 8, 2026 at 2:26 AM IST

iStock.com

The Central Banking Desk

Payrolls Cool the Fed Hike Case After Sintra

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

July 3, 2026 at 10:33 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap

Equities Rally on IT Rebound, Lower Oil; Bond Yields Decline

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

July 2, 2026 at 11:52 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Risk-off Mood Grips Asia as Chip Selloff Outweighs Easing Oil Prices

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 2, 2026 at 2:25 AM IST

iStock.com

Market Wrap

Equities Rise; Rupee Slides Before Fed Remarks

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

July 1, 2026 at 12:08 PM IST

Why are Central Banks Taking Guard Again?

Inflation is not roaring, but it is stirring again—and for rate-setters, the lesson from 2022 is stark: act early, or risk being forced into harsher tightening later with credibility on the line.

Michael Debabrata Patra

July 1, 2026 at 3:32 AM IST

US Fed

Between Certainty and Chaos Lies the Business of Being Human

As policymakers, businesses and markets navigate an increasingly fragmented world, every difficult choice becomes a lesson in trust, resilience and uncertainty.

Phynix

June 29, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

US Fed

The Warsh Fed Less Talk, More Price Stability

Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting signals a shift towards price stability, supply-side economics and fewer policy signals for markets.

Anuj Agarwal

June 25, 2026 at 6:23 AM IST

Wikimedia Commons

The Maestro, Warsh and the Dangerous Illusion of Forward Guidance

As Kevin Warsh questions forward guidance, Alan Greenspan’s legacy revives a central banking truth: credibility comes from honesty about uncertainty.

R. Gurumurthy

June 24, 2026 at 3:19 AM IST

US Fed

Warsh and Greenspan: The Maestro’s Playbook for the AI Age

Kevin Warsh’s emerging doctrine carries two unmistakable echoes of Alan Greenspan: data-driven discretion over forward guidance, and faith in productivity as a brake on inflation.

V Thiagarajan

June 23, 2026 at 7:05 AM IST

Wiki Commons/ Daniel Torok

When the Strongest Move Is Not to Move

As inflation risks collide with softer growth, the RBI's hold reflects a harder test of monetary policy: knowing when not to overreact.

Sparsh Chhabra

June 18, 2026 at 11:16 AM IST

Warsh’s Fed has Put Inflation Credibility Ahead of Market Comfort

The new Chair’s hawkish debut was less about an imminent rate rise than restoring discipline, credibility and uncertainty to US monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 18, 2026 at 3:56 AM IST

US Fed

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Mixed as Hawkish Fed Offsets Relief From US-Iran Deal

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 18, 2026 at 2:14 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Fed Holds Rates, but Warsh Debut Delivers Hawkish Reset

The Fed left rates at 3.50-3.75%, but higher dots, hotter inflation forecasts and the removal of forward guidance pushed markets to price renewed hike risk.

BasisPoint Insight

June 18, 2026 at 1:30 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap: Equities Extend Four-Day Rally; Rupee Hits Six-Week High

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

June 17, 2026 at 12:09 PM IST

istock.com

The Fed Has Been Honest and Stupid

It would be easy—and a mistake—to blame the US Federal Reserve’s many blunders on corrupt bureaucrats or imagined conspiracies. The truth of the matter is that the central bank relies on an outdated regional map and lagging indicators that no longer tell the whole story, while battling macroeconomic blazes that politicians stoke.

Todd G. Buchholz

June 17, 2026 at 3:12 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Turn Cautious Ahead of Fed as Geopolitical Risks Ease

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 17, 2026 at 2:14 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

The Warsh Reset and Four Ways the Fed Could Change

Kevin Warsh could reshape Fed communication, inflation signals, balance-sheet policy and employment goals, marking a decisive break from the Powell era.

V Thiagarajan

June 16, 2026 at 3:45 AM IST

The White House

The Central Banking Desk:

The Central Banking Desk: Fed Gets Oil Reprieve Before Warsh’s First FOMC

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

June 15, 2026 at 2:42 PM IST

The Morning Edge

Asia Markets Rise as Iran Deal Hopes Lift Risk Appetite

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

May 21, 2026 at 2:04 AM IST

iStock.com

Market Wrap

Equities Rebound as US-China Trade Progress Boosts Sentiment

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

May 14, 2026 at 11:40 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Drift Lower Ahead of BOJ Decision and Iran Developments

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

Dehuti Jani

April 28, 2026 at 2:11 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Ceasefire Extension Fails to Calm Markets Amid Prolonged Conflict Fears

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

April 22, 2026 at 1:45 AM IST

Market Wrap

Equities Hit Six-Week Highs as Banks Rally; US-Iran Talk Hopes Lift Sentiment

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 21, 2026 at 11:37 AM IST

What Will the Fed's "Warsh Era" Bring?

The next Federal Reserve chair will inherit an institution that, by any historical measure, is deeply fractured internally and lacks credibility externally. By strengthening the Fed’s analytical framework and establishing a "balance-sheet theory," Kevin Warsh can oversee the institution's return to excellence.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

February 26, 2026 at 11:48 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Risk-On Mood Lifts Asia, Though Fed and Oil Risks Linger

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

February 19, 2026 at 1:34 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Kevin Warsh's Dangerous Monetary Nostalgia

The next Fed chair seems to think that the large size of the central bank’s balance sheet reflects a discretionary policy choice which can and should be reversed. In reality, however, the Fed's balance sheet has become part of the financial system’s core infrastructure, and shrinking it would carry serious risks.

Lucrezia Reichlin

February 9, 2026 at 3:53 PM IST

Market Wrap

Equities Benchmarks Snap Three-Day Rally on Profit-Taking

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

February 5, 2026 at 11:45 AM IST

Briefing

The Imperatives of a Warsh Fed

Kevin Warsh’s Fed would not rewrite doctrine but would enforce imperatives: restore rate primacy, shrink the balance sheet, and let markets price risk again.

V Thiagarajan

February 5, 2026 at 2:48 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Risk-Off Mood Grips Asia Amid US Tech Sell-Off and Iran Tensions

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

February 4, 2026 at 1:49 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

US–India Trade Deal Sparks Risk-On Rally Across Asia

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

February 3, 2026 at 1:56 AM IST

The Bureau

Asia Stocks Gain Despite Hawkish Fed Outlook

US FOMC Raises Fed Rates by 25 bps, Warsh Flags Persistent Inflation Risks

US Sanctions Bill Exposes India to Tariffs of Up to 100%, Says GTRI

Five Trends in India’s Latest Trade Numbers

India’s Gilt Market Faces Pressure on Every Front, Curve Seen Bear-Flattening

India August WPI Inflation 9.92%, June Figure Revised to 9.97% From 9.87%

August CPI Turns October RBI Meeting Into a Live Rate-Hike Call

India Govt Allows 0.4% MDR on UPI Merchant Payments Above ₹2,000

India’s GDP Data Puzzle: Pronab Sen on Deflators, Revisions and Trust

In Search of the Lesser Florican

Maneet Pal Singh